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Understand how VC dealmaking activities have changed over the past year and what they look like today.
Learn what differentiates top VC firms and see how your firm’s activities compare.
Get actionable insights into adapting your deal strategies to get ahead this year.
There’s no doubt that 2023 was a challenging year for many in venture capital.
There were fewer high-quality deals, as many of the most promising companies cut back to extend runways rather than take further investment at a lower valuation. And as exits dwindled, so did the supply of new investment in private markets.
Combine all of these factors and the result is a sense of hibernation in private capital.
So what can Affinity platform data on 3,000+ firms illuminate about how VCs performed last year, and what they’re doing differently now? How do these generalized trends compare to a predefined set of ‘top’ VC firms?
Keep reading to find out.
All firms showed inconsistent engagement; they were historically quiet mid-year, with 31% fewer emails sent and received QoQ in Q2, but rebounded by Q4.
Top firms consistently generated more engagement, sending and receiving as many as 30% more emails than all firms in Q4.
As deal flow slowed mid-year, top firms likely increased their focus on supporting their portfolio companies (a priority for 48% of firms) and strengthening existing relationships.
Top firms also worked on more deals than all firms; founders tend to move to more established funds during challenging times.
With a 20% QoQ increase in emails in Q1 2024, all firms are working harder than the lows of 2023 to generate deals.
Engagement for top firms was at a two-year high in Q1 2024—with 86% more emails sent and received YoY—partly driven by an uptick in new deals in Q4 2023.
Similar to engagement, all firms had inconsistent network growth with large dips mid-year (33% fewer contacts were added QoQ in Q2) and a rebound in Q4.
Top firms followed a similar trend, but their network growth didn’t fully normalize by year-end, which saw a 31% drop in new contacts compared to Q1.
All firms worked harder to grow their networks, likely in hopes of sourcing new deals after a slow year.
Top firms appear to have prioritized their existing relationships (network growth fell, but engagement increased) to support their portfolio companies, nurture existing LP relationships, or for deal sourcing.
All firms grew their networks more than top firms in Q1 2024, adding 8% more contacts—appearing to be gearing up for a more active year.
With an uptick in network growth in Q4 2023 followed by slower growth in Q1 2024, top firms likely shifted their focus to maintaining their existing networks as their deal flow picked up in Q4 2023.
Deal volume steadily decreased for all firms, while it decreased then spiked for top firms, who added 69% more deals QoQ in Q4.
The consistent increase in engagement from top firms throughout the year appeared to culminate in a Q4 deal surge.
Top firms also appeared more comfortable taking risks than others, with larger swings in deal activity—arguably because their longer track record reduces the concern that LPs won’t invest in their next fund.
With all firms increasing their engagement and outreach in H2 2023, we may see an uptick in deal volume later this year—73% of firms expect to see more deals this year1, and there was a 3% YoY growth in active founders in Q1 20242.
In Q1 2024, deal volume for top firms fell back in line with early 2023 levels (down 6% YoY and 39% QoQ) after its year-end peak—making it unclear whether deal volume more broadly will increase the rest of the year.
1 Affinity Survey for the 2024 Private capital investment predictions report
2 Live Data Technologies, data on U.S.-based founders only from a sample of 71M+ U.S.-based white-collar professionals
of dealmakers expect over half of their deals to come from their existing network in 2024
source: Affinity's 2024 Private capital investment predictions reportThe trends in this report reveal three key differences in the dealmaking activities of top firms:
Affinity platform data paints an uncertain picture of what’s to come in venture capital.
On the one hand, dealmaking activities are on the rise, and this suggests the industry thaw has begun. But at the same time, even top firms appear to be struggling to reach median deal volumes from before the peak of 2021.
To navigate a precarious macroeconomic backdrop, VCs will have to adhere to the fundamentals of the relationship-driven industry—focusing on steady communication and doubling down on their existing networks—while also taking whatever downtime is offered to invest and innovate in technologies that make them more efficient and agile.
"The industry is becoming more competitive, and investors need to always find new ways to see more deals, conduct more effective due diligence, and help founders at scale. I believe data can help streamline and potentially turbo-charge operations without increasing team size. When used wisely, data can act as a digital jetpack for investors.”
"We know that when we go into Affinity, the data is automatically there, and it’s a 360-degree view from across our firm and communities. It enables us all to work together as a single cohesive team."
Affinity combines AI, automation, and deal data to streamline sourcing, portfolio support, fundraising activities, and relationship management.
With Affinity, you can:
The top firms cited in this report are defined by Dealroom in their global rankings as:
“A ranking of venture capital investors, based anywhere, investing in companies anywhere, and at any stage.
The ranking looks at how successful investors are at picking startups that go on to big outcomes – primarily looking at unicorns and future unicorns (companies valued $250M-$1B). Investments are weighted by the stage at which firms invest in the most successful companies, with the aim of creating insights from a level playing field, e.g. most points for backing a unicorn at Seed, then Series A and so on.”
Analysis of Dealroom's rankings alongside our global data set of more than 3,000 VC firm customers revealed that more than half of the top firms use Affinity. We refer to this cohort as “top firms” throughout the report.
The platform data displayed in this report represents dealmaking trends across the top 20 compared with all firms. The data is aggregated and anonymized and we have used median figures to provide an accurate picture of how the market has evolved on a quarterly basis from the beginning of 2023 until the end of the first quarter of 2024.